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Charting the recovery

I first created and posted this chart back in November 2008. Since then I've updated it numerous times, beginning here and here, where I noted (June 29, 2009) that "I think a recovery is underway, and it is being fueled by a restoration of confidence and the return of liquidity to the markets." That later turned out to be almost the exact date that marked the end of the recession and the beginning of the recovery. As the chart suggested at the time, the decline of fear and the restoration of confidence has indeed been one of the driving forces of the economy's recovery and the market's rally.

It's been quite gratifying (and rewarding) to see how this has played out over the years.

Is the chart now suggesting that we've seen the end of the rally? I don't think so. I think it suggests that fear and uncertainty are no longer going to be playing a very important role. Economic fundamentals and fiscal and monetary policy actions will be the dominant factors going forward.

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