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Weekly claims update

Weekly unemployment claims have ticked up in recent weeks, but this is likely part of the normal signal-to-noise ratio that comes with this series. On an unadjusted basis, claims are down 5.5% from a year ago; on an adjusted basis, they are down almost 9%, and both those figures are consistent with the declining trend we have been observing for some time now.

The number of people receiving unemployment compensation is down 16% (almost 1.2 million) in the past year, and this is significant. On the margin, fewer people receiving unemployment benefits means more people are working and more people have a greater incentive to find and accept jobs.

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