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New York Manufacturing Index very impressive





I usually don't pay much attention to regional Fed manufacturing surveys, but today's Empire State survey caught my eye, and Mark Perry's comments were compelling. This chart shows the six-month outlook for general business conditions, and it has brightened significantly in the past two months, about on par with the improvement we saw just prior to the economy's emergence from the 2008-9 recession. Add this to the growing list of improving economic fundamentals in the U.S. economy, contrast that to the still-gloomy assumptions priced into equity markets and Treasury yields, and you begin to understand why the equity market is moving grudgingly higher, as I explained in greater detail last week.

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