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Making some progress in Europe



I'm traveling today so blogging will be brief and delayed.

First thoughts: the news from Europe is good, but the crisis is far from over. It's good that Greek debt will be written down, but the haircut still seems timid, and we still need to see some austerity measures. But at least something is being done to address the problem, and that means the likelihood of catastrophe has diminished greatly. That is the key point: what we are seeing is much better than the market had been priced for.


This chart of the ratio of the Vix Index to the 10-yr Treasury says it all. The outlook is now much better than it was just a few days ago. Stocks are up big, yields are up big, and the Vix is down big. The future is far from rosy, but it now looks like a catastrophic global meltdown is no longer very likely.

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