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The jobs picture hasn't changed--modest/moderate growth still likely





A quick update on two releases today. The August Challenger tally of announced corporate layoffs reversed some of its gains in July, while still remaining firmly in territory consistent with ongoing growth and, at the very least, no double-dip recession. The ADP estimate of new private sector jobs was a bit below expectations, but still points to gains in private sector payrolls to be announced this Friday on the order of 100K or so, as is currently expected.

I would note, however, that since the beginning of the current recovery, the ADP estimate of private sector jobs has lagged the BLS estimate by some 500K jobs. So if I had to bet on whether the BLS number will be more or less than expected, I would take the over. In any event, given the pessimism that seems to be rampant these days, we are probably overdue for some positive surprises.

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