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More progress on the employment front

Weekly claims (seasonally adjusted) have dropped rather dramatically in recent weeks. That's because on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, claims have not risen as is usually the case around this time of the year (they've actually been flat since March). It's good news that more people are not being laid off as usual, but it doesn't necessarily mean that employers are hiring. Still, the ADP job estimate yesterday, coupled with the strong ISM employment report, suggest that we are likely to see a modestly rising trend in jobs for the foreseeable future. Thus, we may see a positive surprise in tomorrow's jobs data, with expectations of private payrolls currently at 158K. Whatever the case, I think it's clear that the employment scene has been gradually improving for most of this year and is likely to continue to do so.

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