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The recession is officially over

It's not often that an economist makes a near-perfect forecast, so I deserve to take a moment to toot my own horn. In my 2008 year-end forecast, "Predictions for 2009," I wrote that "the economy is going to recover sooner than the market expects, with the bottom in activity coming before mid-2009." Back then the market was expecting a prolonged depression/deflation: 10-yr Treasury yields were approaching 2%, and corporate credit spreads had reached unimaginably high levels.

Today comes the official news, from the National Bureau of Economic Research, that the recession ended in June 2009. You heard it here first, 15 months ago, when I noted in a June 18, 2009 post that "we have very likely seen the end of the recession."

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