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Jobless claims flat to down

The top chart shows seasonally adjusted jobless claims, while the bottom chart shows the actual level of jobless claims. I've maintained for the past month or so that faulty seasonal adjustment factors have been behind the recent volatility in the seasonally adjusted numbers (which is what everyone focuses on), and I think that with time I'm being proven correct. This means that the big drop in claims in early July was a non-event, just as the big rise in claims in August was a non-event. The underlying reality is that claims have been flat to down this year. It's encouraging that the unadjusted number is now at a 2-year low.

Absolutely no sign of a double-dip recession here.

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