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The number receiving unemployment insurance is down 25%

This news has not received the attention it deserves. The number of persons receiving unemployment compensation insurance has dropped by 25% (2.8 million) since the high late last year, from 11.65 million to 8.82 million as of June 11th. According to the household survey of employment, we can surmise that 1.3 million of those no longer receiving compensation have found private sector jobs, while most of the remainder, for better or worse, have a stronger incentive to find a new job. I think the jobs situation continues to improve, albeit not by enough to result in a significant decline in the unemployment rate.

I'll be very interested to see the household survey tomorrow, since it has been registering a lot more jobs than the establishment survey, and that is typical in the early stages of a recovery. But whatever the numbers are, I suspect that they will be better than the market is expecting, since the market has had a very bearish bias towards everything of late.

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