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Private sector jobs are up at a modest pace this year

June jobs numbers were somewhat disappointing. They are notoriously volatile, of course, so you can't read too much into one month's numbers. According to the establishment survey, the private sector created 83K jobs, but according to the household survey (which I think does a better job at picking up new jobs in the early stages of a recovery), 322K jobs were lost. Looking at the trend in both, using Dec. '09 as the low, the two surveys show a total of between 600K (establishment) and 1 million (household) jobs have been created in the private sector this year. The truth probably lies somewhere in between; jobs probably are up this year at an annualized pace of about 1.5%, and that's not very impressive. In good times, jobs rise 2-3% per year.

So this is a sub-par recovery so far (and that's old news), but it is a recovery and there are no signs in the data that I can see that suggest the economy is rolling over.

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