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Inflation at the producer level is alive and well




Thanks mainly to rising food and energy prices (in the past six months, food prices are up at a 13% annual rate, as Brian Wesbury points out), producer price inflation rose to 6% in the past year. Core inflation at the producer level remains pretty tame, but I note that the core PPI is up at a 1.9% annual rate in the past three months. It wouldn't be usual if the core PPI measure picked up further in the months to come, since the headline measure has tended to lead the core measure since the 2001 recession. Brian agrees, adding:

... core prices are showing higher inflation deeper into the production process. Core intermediate prices were up 0.7% in March and are up at a 6.3% annual rate in the past six months; core crude prices increased 6.0% in March and are up at a 41.1% annual rate in the past six months. These figures suggest the placid core price measure for finished goods will eventually start going up much faster.

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