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Job market is poised for growth

The ADP employment report released today was a bit softer than the market expected (-23K vs. +40K), but it's within shouting distance of an inflection point in which the jobs market stops shedding jobs and starts adding. Expectations for this Friday's payroll number are for a healthly gain of 180K, but most of this would probably come from the hiring of census workers. Regardless, it's clear that the jobs market is at or near the point at which growth replaces decline. Soon we'll be worrying about how fast the economy is adding jobs. It's still very unlikely that enough jobs will be added between now and the November elections to make the electorate feel like it received good value for the $1 trillion we borrowed to "stimulate" the economy. This could be one of the most exciting, important, and divisive elections in memory.

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