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The 10-yr Treasury signal

This chart should not be interpreted scientifically. It is my interpretation of what the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds reveals about the market's outlook for U.S. economic growth. It's subjective, but I think it fits with a lot of the evidence that I follow. Today it's saying that the market believes the U.S. economy is growing at a relatively unimpressive pace; the consensus of most forecasters seems to be somewhere around 2-2.5%. If yields move above 4% this will be a good sign that optimism is returning. At 5%, the bond market would be telling us that we're in for a decent recovery, which would imply growth of 4% or more. I expect to see yields moving up to at least 4.5% this year, which would be consistent with growth expectations of 3-4%.

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