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Here's how much rates are expected to rise







A question from a reader made me think that this chart might be of interest. It comes from Bloomberg, and is designed to show the market's implied forecast of interest rates at different points in time. The current Treasury yield curve is the bottom red line, and as you move up the chart you have the expected curve 1, 2, and 5 years from now.

The mathematics of the yield curve dictate that if you want to make money by shorting a bond today, then you will win your bet only if the yield on that bond exceeds the expected yield. Thus, you can make money shorting the 10-year for the next 5 years only if the 10-year yields more than 4.9% at the end of that period.

It's also interesting to see just how much the market expects the Fed to tighten over the next 5 years: by some 450 bps. This is like the "line" in betting: you win the bet on rising interest rates only if they exceed the line.

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