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Employment update

I don't have much in the way of insights into today's employment report, but this chart is interesting. According to the establishment survey we are very close to a bottom. The household survey continues to decline, however, but the gap between the two surveys has narrowed considerably; if all goes well the household survey should show some bottoming action in coming months.

Regardless, it remains the case that the improvement in the labor market is gradual, and we are unlikely to see any dramatic decline in unemployment before the November elections. This all but ensures that the economy will be a major focus for the election, and Democrats are going to take a huge beating. Republicans will be successful to the extent they regroup and focus on the urgent need to rein in the explosive growth of spending, to avoid tax increases, and to lower and flatten the tax structure.

While the news continues to be rather grim, the prospects for the future are brighter.

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